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What will happen to the scrum?

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Raider999 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 07 Jul 2020 at 11:43
Originally posted by workerbee workerbee wrote:

Interesting news today three pubs closed because a customer tested positive. All staff to be tested and the Pub has to be deep cleaned. So all the customers who went to those pubs will have to be contacted and self isolate. A simple answer to avoid going back into full lock down is to be sensible. People do not listen it has not gone away so everyone needs to keep their distance , which was clearly not the case over the weekend. It is your choice, whilst the young make get a mild dose they will pass it onto older relatives who will will be in greater danger. Be sensible and wait a few more weeks. We are getting closer to producing a vaccine and life will go on.


Having seen pictures, reportedly from pubs that have closed, I observe

1) customers seemed to all be in 20s or 30s
2) absolutely no social distancing
3) rules re sitting at tables inside not being observed

Whilst understanding younger people's frustrations from the past 10-11 weeks, I fear we will be heading back to all pubs being closed before long.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 'Hopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2020 at 10:34
Originally posted by workerbee workerbee wrote:

Interesting news today three pubs closed because a customer tested positive. All staff to be tested and the Pub has to be deep cleaned. So all the customers who went to those pubs will have to be contacted and self isolate.
I doubt that those who are told to self isolate will in fact do so.
What if the Hokey Kokey really IS what it's all about?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote workerbee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2020 at 10:08
Interesting news today three pubs closed because a customer tested positive. All staff to be tested and the Pub has to be deep cleaned. So all the customers who went to those pubs will have to be contacted and self isolate. A simple answer to avoid going back into full lock down is to be sensible. People do not listen it has not gone away so everyone needs to keep their distance , which was clearly not the case over the weekend. It is your choice, whilst the young make get a mild dose they will pass it onto older relatives who will will be in greater danger. Be sensible and wait a few more weeks. We are getting closer to producing a vaccine and life will go on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gopher72 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2020 at 06:44
Launceston Rugby Club hosted the army doing Covid-19 testing, approx 120 tested last week and will be resumed tomorrow 8th July.Unfortunately we do not know the results, except one, mine and clear.
A committee member posted an advert on facebook about the testing and was treated to a load of abuse that we were causing the spread of the virus and a bad advert for the club!
The army personnel said that they wished they could test the players but unfortunately could not come down to the resumed regulated training sessions. They had a feeling that prior resumption, all players would have to be tested.
The club also held a NHS Blood Donation session so we can't be doing everything wrong!


Edited by Gopher72 - 07 Jul 2020 at 07:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 15:48
Originally posted by Camquin Camquin wrote:

They could but if there are only 40,000 active cases at any one point, that is less than one in a thousand.

Which means the chance of there being a COVID carrier in a National 1 crowd of 500 is about 40%.
The chance of there being one in a Championship crowd of 1000 is about 64%.

I think that if they were to require masks and impose a 1m distancing, for example with tape on the rail round the pitch to mark it: we could safely watch National league rugby - and the clubs would get a chance to sell us branded face masks. Which Bedford are already selling.


However, until everyone is tested on a regular basis (67m per week/month) the figures you quote are meaningless.

You can have covid without any or only minor symptoms. As only 100k tests are done a day the chances are a lot more people have the virus at any one time.

Edited by Raider999 - 06 Jul 2020 at 15:49
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pappashanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 13:31
It only takes one...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 13:10
They could but if there are only 40,000 active cases at any one point, that is less than one in a thousand.
Which means the chance of there being a COVID carrier in a National 1 crowd of 500 is about 40%.
The chance of there being one in a Championship crowd of 1000 is about 64%.
I think that if they were to require masks and impose a 1m distancing, for example with tape on the rail round the pitch to mark it: we could safely watch National league rugby - and the clubs would get a chance to sell us branded face masks. Which Bedford are already selling.

What's the saying about lies and statistics?
If less that 1 in 1000 have the disease then isn't there a 100% chance of somebody with Covid19 being in a crowd of 1000 people?  But the chance of being next to them is 0.01% (or something like that).  Probably shows but I'm not a statistician! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Camquin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 11:43
They could but if there are only 40,000 active cases at any one point, that is less than one in a thousand.

Which means the chance of there being a COVID carrier in a National 1 crowd of 500 is about 40%.
The chance of there being one in a Championship crowd of 1000 is about 64%.

I think that if they were to require masks and impose a 1m distancing, for example with tape on the rail round the pitch to mark it: we could safely watch National league rugby - and the clubs would get a chance to sell us branded face masks. Which Bedford are already selling.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote workerbee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 11:13
On current estimates there are still over 20,000 people who have tested positive for Covid 19 and probably the same who are asymptomatic so the chances of standing closely to someone in a pub is quite high especially as you saw the crowds on the beach and in the pub last weekend. The hot spots seem to have occurred around factories who have not put social distances in place and it shows how quickly a spike can flare up  if we do not keep to the guidelines. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 4 weeks after the way people got together last Saturday. Remember the person standing next to you could have Covid!! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pappashanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 11:11
 
Originally posted by Raider999 Raider999 wrote:

Originally posted by Pappashanga Pappashanga wrote:

They can't just start training without a rigorous plan. starting contact sports without one is just plain dangerous and irresponsible. The figures put forward are tiny compared with the enormous sums this disease has cost and might cost in the future. Look at Australia in the past few days.


Agreed they are tiny in the big picture, but not sure many N1/N2 teams could afford the extra costs.

Remember, all teams have to be able to afford testing or there is no league.

As for the idea that people are responsible when it comes to sipocial distancing - recent pictures of Beaches and Drinkers at Pubs on Saturday would indicate a lot of people either think they are immune or don't care.

That's the whole point, the irresponsible element make us all suffer. It only needs one of them to be a rugby player to start the whole thing off again. Very depressing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 10:56
Originally posted by Pappashanga Pappashanga wrote:

They can't just start training without a rigorous plan. starting contact sports without one is just plain dangerous and irresponsible. The figures put forward are tiny compared with the enormous sums this disease has cost and might cost in the future. Look at Australia in the past few days.


Agreed they are tiny in the big picture, but not sure many N1/N2 teams could afford the extra costs.

Remember, all teams have to be able to afford testing or there is no league.

As for the idea that people are responsible when it comes to sipocial distancing - recent pictures of Beaches and Drinkers at Pubs on Saturday would indicate a lot of people either think they are immune or don't care.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pappashanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 09:34
They can't just start training without a rigorous plan. starting contact sports without one is just plain dangerous and irresponsible. The figures put forward are tiny compared with the enormous sums this disease has cost and might cost in the future. Look at Australia in the past few days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LJ from Roth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 09:18
Options could be a thermometer test on arrival for training, anyone with temperature sent off to get tested and not allowed back at the club until negative test result comes through. 

If social distancing being practiced away from the club by players, then the rest of the squad should be ok? Anyone with symptoms is allowed a free NHS test so cost to clubs is just the digital thermometer. It does rely on people being careful away from the rugby bubble though. 

Thinking only about National Leagues. 


Edited by LJ from Roth - 06 Jul 2020 at 09:23
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Halliford Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2020 at 21:11
[QUOTE=Raider999] [QUOTE=Pappashanga]
How much does it cost to test someone? Whatever it costs, it has to be worth it, until inoculation arrives.

Having a relative working for McLaren, each test costs £80. They have to be tested twice a week, so 40 players/officials costs £6400. Add in thermometers and it gets expensive. 



Edited by Halliford - 05 Jul 2020 at 21:12
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2020 at 13:14
Originally posted by Pappashanga Pappashanga wrote:

How much does it cost to test someone? Whatever it costs, it has to be worth it, until inoculation arrives.











Assume 40 per club per week ( need to test the expected 20 man playing squad, some reserves in case of positive tests/training injuries and coaches/medical staff - around £100 pp = £4K per week per club

Totally unrealistic for clubs below Premiership level IMO
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Count Ford Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2020 at 13:01
Finance wise I doubt there are any clubs that would be able to foot the testing bill unless they had someone like a Steve Lansdown willing to foot the bill




Edited by Count Ford - 05 Jul 2020 at 13:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pappashanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2020 at 12:21
How much does it cost to test someone? Whatever it costs, it has to be worth it, until inoculation arrives.









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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2020 at 11:53
Originally posted by Pappashanga Pappashanga wrote:

Surely the solution to this is to have everyone tested and when and if available, inoculated. All this stuff about where people cough is unpredictable and risky.


Premiership apart, where is the money coming from to test all players on a weekly basis?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pappashanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jul 2020 at 18:14
Surely the solution to this is to have everyone tested and when and if available, inoculated. All this stuff about where people cough is unpredictable and risky.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dagfish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jul 2020 at 12:22
Interesting article on the BBC website regarding virus transmission and scrummaging:

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