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National 2 South status

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Danny Boy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Danny Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Feb 2016 at 14:41
Originally posted by fatbear fatbear wrote:

Clifton have 56 points but have by far the hardest run-in of teams in the bottom half and it is not totally inconceivable they could lose all their remaining matches
 
Stortford ( A )
Chinnor ( H )
Redruth ( A )
Old A ( H )
Canterbury ( A )
Taunton ( H )
Worthing ( A )
 
How many points will they likely need to stay up ?


Saturdays result has certainly reduced the pressure but it is definately a tough run in. Having said that a few injured players have returned, notably Dan Wells and Ben Foley in the backs. They will be joined by the Uren boys at 8 and 9 soon. You can add to that Carpenter and Slowic with their Championship quality in the back line. I can see an 'upset' victory or two before the season is over.

Rugby clubs are vital. Keep the game sustainable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Intouch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 14:42
65 is the magic number I am told In National 2 South.. You cannot go down on 65 points.
Its taken 2 weeks for somebody to work out all the perms, as most of the sides below half way play each other, but I have been assured that when you get to 65 points you are safe!




Edited by Intouch - 01 Mar 2016 at 14:43
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Old Hooker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 15:10
InTouch
You sound very relieved for some reason!!
another one against the head
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jester10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 15:39
I'm a sad so 'n so, who keeps a track on what's needed to stay up etc. Here's my latest after the results last Saturday - 

  Team   Actual Played Matches Left   Maximum
1 Cambridge 100 23 7   135
2 Old Albanians 89 22 8   129
3 Bishops Stortford 81 23 7   116
4 Taunton   80 22 8   120
5 Redruth   78 22 8   118
6 Old Elfs   61 23 7   96
7 Barnes   60 23 7   95
8 Clifton   56 23 7   91
9 Worthing   53 23 7   88
10 Rams   49 23 7   84
11 Bury SE   48 23 7   83
12 Canturbury   48 23 7   83
13 Chinnor   47 23 7   82
14 Dorking   43 23 7   78
15 Southend 39 23 7   74
16 Cornish ABS 9 22 8   49
Enjoying life!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Intouch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 15:58
Originally posted by Old Hooker Old Hooker wrote:

InTouch
You sound very relieved for some reason!!

Not at all old horse, just passing on what somebody has worked out!!
 




Edited by Intouch - 01 Mar 2016 at 15:58
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 17:00
Originally posted by Top of the Hill Top of the Hill wrote:

I don't want this thread to get hijacked over different interpretations of a single game, but judging from Steve Larkins' post-match interview I'm guessing I was watching a similar game to him. Plus I implied that the approach might be naive in some games, not that one in particular. They're playing for league position, yes, but not for the title and not with any genuinely important pressure often associated with such a target. That's all I meant. Sorry for having watched a game this season that I felt was worth being wholly positive about and so decided to comment for once. Lesson learned: I'll get back in my box after this next bit... Ouch

No need for any box climbing, a difference of views is much more interesting that the mutual back slapping that often dominates these kind of threads.

Originally posted by Top of the Hill Top of the Hill wrote:

As for later posting that a max of 4 players would have made the team that won promotion(2 of the players who featured on Saturday DID play in that play-off game -Vinnicombe, Priddey - and another was part of the squad that year too - Joyce), that seems on face value incredibly harsh on some of the current crop, especially because it probably ends up comparing past players for their careers vs youngsters only just starting on part of a season.  Who knows yet what they might go on to achieve? Might think about it a bit more another time, but that's a discussion for around the clubhouse and not here methinks.

Maybe not fair to the individuals involved, but I thought a decent way of trying to assess the current team's potential to step up to N1. Comparing what the 2005 crop have achieved over their careers to the current side wouldn't be terribly instructive. I was comparing the 2005 players as I recall their form that season to how the current players are performing. Maybe my view has been subconsciously polarised by the fact that I watch many of the 2005 team for longer than most the current side. There are a number of young players in the current team with potential to have very impressive careers, but I fail to see the relevance of what they might achieve to the comparison I was trying to make.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 17:10
Originally posted by Intouch Intouch wrote:

65 is the magic number I am told In National 2 South.. You cannot go down on 65 points.
Its taken 2 weeks for somebody to work out all the perms, as most of the sides below half way play each other, but I have been assured that when you get to 65 points you are safe!



Did "someone" explain how they worked this out? My maths isn't that strong, but I'm struggling to see how he / she got the threshold this high. Simply extrapolating Chinnor's total would put the threshold between 61 and 62. I wonder if your correspondent is assuming that those in danger will perform better with a gin to their head?

Either way, I don't see how anyone can claim to have "worked it out" rather than to have made a prediction based on a series of assumptions. Anyone who can "work out" things like this must be making fortune on the betting exchanges!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2016 at 18:44
Originally posted by RedOrDead RedOrDead wrote:

Originally posted by Intouch Intouch wrote:

65 is the magic number I am told In National 2 South.. You cannot go down on 65 points.
Its taken 2 weeks for somebody to work out all the perms, as most of the sides below half way play each other, but I have been assured that when you get to 65 points you are safe!





Did "someone" explain how they worked this out? My maths isn't that strong, but I'm struggling to see how he / she got the threshold this high. Simply extrapolating Chinnor's total would put the threshold between 61 and 62. I wonder if your correspondent is assuming that those in danger will perform better with a gin to their head?

Either way, I don't see how anyone can claim to have "worked it out" rather than to have made a prediction based on a series of assumptions. Anyone who can "work out" things like this must be making fortune on the betting exchanges!


Interesting concept - a gun might be better than a gin.

I suspect the 65 points is the magic number because although all but CABs could individually get more than this when taken as a collective they cannot because there are a number of games between the bottom half.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FEZ ANT PLUCKER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 09:11
Analyse until the proverbial cows come home.............but no-one can accurately predict the outcome of pos 14 & 15 in this seasons N2S. Its all in the lap of the gods.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Camquin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 10:37
So Redruth and above are safe and fighting for top spot.
Old Elfs, Clifton and Barnes could be relegated or promoted via the playoff.

Wins for Cambridge and OAs this week would cut the promotion race to the top five.
The dog fight will run and run and may keep us interested until the final match.

Enjoy it while it lasts, next year is going to be much duller, I suspect there will be just the one promotion place and no relegation.

Camquin



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Top of the Hill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 11:13
Very true Camquin: 2 up/3 down from N1 plus 3 up/0 down from all 4 N3s would make 45 teams at N2 level.

This year might be the best year to get relegated ever...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Danny Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 11:41
Originally posted by Top of the Hill Top of the Hill wrote:

Very true Camquin: 2 up/3 down from N1 plus 3 up/0 down from all 4 N3s would make 45 teams at N2 level.

This year might be the best year to get relegated ever...


. . . but only if you can keep your squad together and/or improve. The league should get easier when additional teams move up to N2 but as expounded on this thread we often see promoted teams perform well in their first year. There will be a lot more promoted teams . .
Rugby clubs are vital. Keep the game sustainable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Athman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 13:34
The interesting fact for the Level 5 clubs (this is probably in the wrong thread) is that for the 6 teams promoted this year they are effectively going to get a one year grace period (moratorium) in that they cannot go down next year. So if used properly a good chance to establish themselves without looking over their shoulders at the drop. (Perhaps the Premiership will see it as a test case!! LOL)
They also have the safety net of knowing that 12 more clubs will be moving up to this level the following season.
 
So for any existing club that survives this year 18 new clubs added before relegation is an issue again. But this is the heart of the debate I believe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FHLH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 13:57
Originally posted by Jester10 Jester10 wrote:

I'm a sad so 'n so, who keeps a track on what's needed to stay up etc. Here's my latest after the results last Saturday - 

 Team ActualPlayedMatches Left Maximum
1Cambridge100237 135
2Old Albanians89228 129
3Bishops Stortford81237 116
4Taunton 80228 120
5Redruth 78228 118
6Old Elfs 61237 96
7Barnes 60237 95
8Clifton 56237 91
9Worthing 53237 88
10Rams 49237 84
11Bury SE 48237 83
12Canturbury 48237 83
13Chinnor 47237 82
14Dorking 43237 78
15Southend39237 74
16Cornish ABS9228 49
 
So theoretically only the top 3 are currently safe!  Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jester10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 14:02
Originally posted by FHLH FHLH wrote:

Originally posted by Jester10 Jester10 wrote:

I'm a sad so 'n so, who keeps a track on what's needed to stay up etc. Here's my latest after the results last Saturday - 

 Team ActualPlayedMatches Left Maximum
1Cambridge100237 135
2Old Albanians89228 129
3Bishops Stortford81237 116
4Taunton 80228 120
5Redruth 78228 118
6Old Elfs 61237 96
7Barnes 60237 95
8Clifton 56237 91
9Worthing 53237 88
10Rams 49237 84
11Bury SE 48237 83
12Canturbury 48237 83
13Chinnor 47237 82
14Dorking 43237 78
15Southend39237 74
16Cornish ABS9228 49
 
So theoretically only the top 3 are currently safe!  Wink

Yep, but only Redruth upwards can gain promotion Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Raider999 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 17:53
Originally posted by Danny Boy Danny Boy wrote:

Originally posted by Top of the Hill Top of the Hill wrote:

Very true Camquin: 2 up/3 down from N1 plus 3 up/0 down from all 4 N3s would make 45 teams at N2 level.

This year might be the best year to get relegated ever...


. . . but only if you can keep your squad together and/or improve. The league should get easier when additional teams move up to N2 but as expounded on this thread we often see promoted teams perform well in their first year. There will be a lot more promoted teams . .


Yes promoted teams often do well in their first season in N2 - however these are teams that earned promotion not ones promoted to make up the numbers!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Top of the Hill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 19:24
Originally posted by Jester10 Jester10 wrote:

Originally posted by FHLH FHLH wrote:

Originally posted by Jester10 Jester10 wrote:

I'm a sad so 'n so, who keeps a track on what's needed to stay up etc. Here's my latest after the results last Saturday - 

 Team ActualPlayedMatches Left Maximum
1Cambridge100237 135
2Old Albanians89228 129
3Bishops Stortford81237 116
4Taunton 80228 120
5Redruth 78228 118
6Old Elfs 61237 96
7Barnes 60237 95
8Clifton 56237 91
9Worthing 53237 88
10Rams 49237 84
11Bury SE 48237 83
12Canturbury 48237 83
13Chinnor 47237 82
14Dorking 43237 78
15Southend39237 74
16Cornish ABS9228 49
 
So theoretically only the top 3 are currently safe!  Wink

Yep, but only Redruth upwards can gain promotion Cry


Err... even on that analysis Taunton are safe since there are 3 teams that cannot overtake them on points, and Redruth are safe because even though Dorking can draw level they would have less wins than the Reds. Embarrassed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FHLH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 20:33
Yes TOTH, I realised that when explaining the comparative relegation tangle in National 1 and 2 - everyone's tight!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinese dave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2016 at 11:42
I hear on the grapevine that in a bid to retain their National 2 status Dorking have approached Richmond for loan players to see them out of trouble until the end of the season, or is it more Chinese Whispers !!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tyke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2016 at 12:24
The Chinese need to read the regulations, the transfer deadline was last weekend!
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