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Nat2S status 2019-2020

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RedPete View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedPete Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 21:37
A few years ago, when there were only 15 teams in Nat 2S (either when Mounts Bay or Rugby Lions) dropped out of the league, the home advantage in the play-offs was determined by calculating the percentage of league points against the maximum possible (5 * number of games played).
I can't be bothered to work it out but I suspect it would probably yield the same result as Blutarsky's method.
I thought I'd seen it in the NCA regulations but couldn't find it just now

Edited by RedPete - 24 Mar 2020 at 21:38
Schadenfreude - such a big word for something so small-minded
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Camquin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 21:54
Yes it does.

All Blutarski's method does is multiply the current average point per game by the maximum number of games.

In the games played your have a certain number of points. So the points per match is p/n=  r. 
We now give the side r points for the remaining games and they have 30r points.

So the numbers are bigger, but the ordering and relationships are the same. 
Blood and Sand
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 22:10
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I think Pete, that what you describe is arithmetically, exactly the same as using average league points per game.  multiplying average points per game by 30 this year, or 28 in the year you mention, would arrange the league table in the same order as if you just used average league points per game recorded so far. 

In the past few seasons, it has been customary for the NCA website to add an extra column to the league table, showing i think, average points per game, so that we can see who will get home advantage in the playoff should there be different numbers of games played in the two leagues ?  It did not happen this year.....no idea why.

Either way, Titans are top........just got to see what the prawn sandwiches decide now. best of luck from me.  

All of our top 4 are better in that respect than Fylde as i recall so logically, that COULD be used to decide the playoff place......but I suspect that it will not.  

For the record......there have been 18 playoffs....the south have had home advantage on 11 occasions.  Only North Walsham (ohhhh the shame) have lost one of these encounters in 2007.  The south have won 4-3 in the away record......with one of the defeats.....curiously, being a narrow loss by Ampthill after being level transferred.
It's a great shame we lose that fixture this year......it is my favourite game of the season....it generates such huge interest from followers of both leagues and is our only chance to compete against each other. 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Old Hooker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 22:32
Darth, as I recall when choppers were relegated some years ago they were near bust, Fact. with our wonderful RFU cutting all costs but there own I believe my point is valid. Unless they have a new income stream. In which case very good luck to them, and I will stand corrected.
another one against the head
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 13:38
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OH......you misunderstood my post.  It probably lacked clarity.  Let me try again.

I don't pretend to know anything about the state of Redruth's finances when they were relegated, though like others, I am generally aware that those finances were said to be in disarray.

I have no idea what their finances are like noe, though just from following this forum over the years, I gather that lessons were learned from the the first experience and the club has since been run on a sound financial footing. 

All of that is irrelevant  as my point was NOT specific to Choppers. I only used them as an example as you advised that they did not want to be promoted.

My general point is that due to the comparative dominance of Nat2s clubs over this past decade, that the travel implications for ANY Nat2S club being promoted to level 3 MAY be less than they were around the time of Redruth's relegation. 

i.e....

If you stay in Nat2s for next year.......you MAY need to still travel north twice.
If you go up, you will only have to travel north 4 or 5 times.  So not a significant difference.

Also, rather than travelling to the likes of TYnedale, Blaydon and Wharfedale (for example), you will now be travelling to the clubs that have replaced them.

So you travel to (say) Taunton, Chinnor, OE's, Reading and Cinderford instead.  I don't present it as a fact, but suggest these trips MIGHT be both quicker and cheaper for southern clubs  

So from a travel aspect, and this is just a personal opinion of course, the southern sides have much the better of it.

Consider the situation for Caldy by comparison and in order to be even handed.

Caldy would have completed a season in Nat2N without ever having the extra expense of travelling south.
Promotion for them to level 3 means that they will now need to travel south 12 times ?  That seems quite a difference to me.
I wonder if they want to be promoted ? I imagine they will be delighted with the challenge, but that is just another guess Big smile Wink

I hope that makes the issue clearer for anybody who read my first post.   Just a personal opinion and a potential discussion point ?  WinkWink  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tigerburnie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 14:32
From my understanding, Leicester Lions have enjoyed the level transfer south, no local derbies to swell the spectators and some long coach trips means they are probably well placed to go into Nat 1, pity the wheels fell off in a couple of key games to maintain a challenge near the top. I really don't think they would mind another year in the south and they are not a rich club by any standards, I think they have enjoyed the challenge visiting(and receiving) some new adversaries.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2020 at 20:32
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I am a confessed and unapologetic anorak when it comes to stats, so it has been a huge frustration for me (personally) this year that Stabunker stopped functioning after the first 5/6 games.

We all have our views and perceptions based on watching our own teams regularly, and seeing opponents once or perhaps twice a year.

Like it or not (and not is the prevalent attitude I know), but the accumulated stats over a season, often provide some invaluable insights. 

Great news !!!  Ouch  The cessation of all sport has allowed Statbunker to bring Nat2S data back up to date and with even more time on my hands than usual......I have been delving through it with some enthusiasm.  

We are in a strange time, so although this may not spark much in the way of discussion......here are some observations and facts from our curtailed season.  I will concentrate on attacking stats here, but buckle up boys.....there could be more Wink

If you are sad enough to take a look back over previous seasons. you will see that the top of the table has been dominated for the greater part, by teams that can be accurately labelled 'backs' sides.  In that they score the clear majority of their tries through the backs.  Sometimes by a ratio of two or even three to one.
Cinderford, Rams, Redruth and sometimes Hawks, have been notable exceptions in the last 5 years, but are statistically, outliers.

This year has seen a sea change.....with many clubs having a much more balanced ratio. close to 1:1.
I don't know why this is.  I suspect however, that there are a combination of reasons:

I think the more balanced attack prepares you better for Nat1.......also we have all witnessed how difficult it is to play against a skillfully weaponised pack.....Rams the excellent recent example, absolutely NOT based on bulk or pure power.
As an aside, Rams recorded 15 penalty tries in consecutive seasons....none in our league have recorded more than 3 this year. 
 
Having watched them play,  I was surprised to see that Titans (55/63) and Hawks (57/60) have scored more forwards tries than backs.  Clifton and to a degree, BSE, are similar.  This is interesting (to me) as both of the first two are comparatively poor scrummagers, but have stilled scored outstanding numbers of tries from their back row forwards.  Even more surprising in both cases, is that their front row forwards were their greatest attacking weapon......outscoring their wingers.  While it is likely that a number of these tries were recorded off of the back of excellently controlled and organised rolling mauls, i suspect it may also be down to the modern trend of having athletes in the front row ?  It might certainly help explain the comparatively weak scrums ?  All guesswork but maybe ?

In stark contrast, our league leaders TJ's, continued their historic weakness of failing to weaponise their pack, although in the last few games, the behemoths in their second row meant that they recorded more locks tries than any other than Lions (step up Ed Sumpter) and bumped these numbers up.  But still only 37 forwards tries in total.  Rams scored 95.....Cinders 93.....whole season totals yes, but markedly different and perhaps.....a forward indicator (no pun intended) of level 3 survival.
 
In the backs however, whenever they managed good front foot ball, they were outstanding in every position , scoring many more backs tries than anyone else......83.  It might surprise many to know who the second highest scorer of backs tries in our league was ?  Go on, have a guess.......well it was tied between OA's and Raiders.....both on 58. 

I expect that that is enough to try most peoples patience for now........but two curious stats to leave you with.  
Which team scored the most full backs tries this year ?
Which team scored the fewest back row forwards tries this year ? 

If you got either right you did better than me.  The answer to both is Redruth.   

gripping stuff eh Wink
  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blutarsky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2020 at 06:59
Originally posted by Camquin Camquin wrote:

Yes it does.

All Blutarski's method does is multiply the current average point per game by the maximum number of games.

In the games played your have a certain number of points. So the points per match is p/n=  r. 
We now give the side r points for the remaining games and they have 30r points.

So the numbers are bigger, but the ordering and relationships are the same. 

Not entirely correct, as the method helps in the many cases where teams have played an unequal number of games. 

In some leagues teams have played as many as 4 fewer games than others, so significant reordering is possible. 

For example: 
Team A has played 22/26 and has 60 points. 
Team B has played 18/26 and has 58 points. 
Team C has played 20/26 and has 57 points. 

Using the method they finish up as follows: 
Team B, 83.8 points.
Team C, 73.1 points. 
Team A, 70.9 points.

Would it be fair for team A to be promoted based on current league position? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Camquin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2020 at 09:35
Yes that is why you look at points per game

Team A 60 points form 22 games = 2.72 points per game
Team B 58 points form 18 games = 3.22 points per game
Team C 57 points form 20 games = 2.85 points per game

All you have done is multiple the total by the number of games (26 in this case).
That does nto affect the order.
It is still B,C, A

And using points per game directly enables comparison between leagues with different numbers of teams.

It is not perfect - as the side with fewer scheduled matches suffers more from the affects of one rain lashed day preventing the bonus point - but is probably the best there is.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedPete Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 2020 at 14:22
Just had a thought, if a game is abandoned after 60min then the result stands. Why shouldn't the same apply to the league, more than 60% of the games have been played? I know, before anyone raises it, it's not in the regulations!
I put this forward for purely selfish reasons.

Edited by RedPete - 29 Mar 2020 at 14:23
Schadenfreude - such a big word for something so small-minded
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Courgeoust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 2020 at 18:51
Agree or disagree RFU Regulation 13.1.3 (page 111/343 RFU Regulations) will be the determining factor as I see it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thatbloke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 2020 at 22:04
Pools panel then!? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote not straight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2020 at 09:23
Talking to a committee member and he had heard that a panel would decide results as per pools panel whether this will happen your guess is as good as mine
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thatbloke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2020 at 11:22
That's certainly the inference in 13.1.3 but I'll be amazed if the RFU can be "ar*ed" going through a pools panel process for the whole pyramid. If they do go down that route I suspect a line will be drawn somewhere and every club below that line will just have to stay where they are and start again next season whenever that may be?
As I have said previously I hope if "pools panels" are convened they include members with knowledge on the ground, particularly local if it goes down that far, rather than a bunch of "Stato boffins" from the dark corridors of Twickenham
There's probably another small print by-law somewhere also saying they can do whatever they choose? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2020 at 11:48
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Two points:

Firstly, Pete may have made his post tongue in cheek, but if the powers that be have already decided that if a game is 60mins through, or three quarters complete, that in that circumstance the result will stand, then I do not see why that principle should not be scaleable and applied to the leagues ?  

Secondly......the idea of a pools panel is ridiculous to me BUT......if you ARE going to do it......why not ask Camquin to recommend half a dozen lads who have done just that every week for years in our prediction leagues ?  Clearly, he would need to exclude supporters of the sides at the top and bottom, but I can't think of anywhere that you could muster more expertise from ?  It will never happen of course. A silly thought, but a valid point methinks. 
That said there are a number of frequently used adjectives on this particular thread when we are discussing/debating Nat2S existence.  I would suggest that 'unpredictable' is the one that should actually apply in this scenario. Use average points per game......the most fair outcome.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote not straight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2020 at 12:34
I think as the league stands at the moment top and bottom is as fair as it can be the bottom 3 should go down Westcliff deserve to stay and I don't think any of the 3 would realistically catch them Taunton and Juddians are still going strong Redruth left their charge too late and I don't think would catch either and Henley fell away at the wrong time
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Hawks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2020 at 13:45
Originally posted by not straight not straight wrote:

I think as the league stands at the moment top and bottom is as fair as it can be the bottom 3 should go down Westcliff deserve to stay and I don't think any of the 3 would realistically catch them Taunton and Juddians are still going strong Redruth left their charge too late and I don't think would catch either and Henley fell away at the wrong time

Can’t argue with that! We had a bad January losing 2 of our 5 games. Just have to wait and see now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rothman2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2020 at 18:45
Originally posted by RedPete RedPete wrote:

Just had a thought, if a game is abandoned after 60min then the result stands. Why shouldn't the same apply to the league, more than 60% of the games have been played? I know, before anyone raises it, it's not in the regulations!
I put this forward for purely selfish reasons.

As an ardent Rotherham United Supporter sitting 2nd in the First Division I also have selfish reasons for the season ending with 8 games to go, whereas of course in the case of Rotherham Titans I selfishly hold the opposite view, but given the world wide situation I just think this season should be thrown in the bin and start again at such times as this godforsaken virus disappears up its own backside.


Edited by Rothman2 - 31 Mar 2020 at 18:46
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tigerburnie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2020 at 22:35
I see the Scottish RFU has declared all domestic rugby results null and void for the season, wonder if others will follow.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote French Connection Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 10:12
...as they did here in France almost 3 weeks ago now, and as I have said several times on here that they will do in England. I'll be amazed if they announce anything different but this is Ingerland and the RFU so hard to be 100% sure.
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